TheLittleTwentieth – Renowned Papers Edition, AI Infused

Local sources from France: Le Monde, Midi Libre.
UK coverage: Euronews.

In a surprising turn of events, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) in France has emerged as the leading bloc in the snap legislative elections. Although they fell short of an absolute majority, the NFP believes they have the right to govern as a minority government. Composed of various leftist parties, including the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, the NFP has vowed to repeal President Emmanuel Macron’s wealth tax abrogation and pension reform, among other measures. However, a broad coalition may be necessary, as Macron and his prime minister have expressed their willingness to form a coalition with moderates, excluding the LFI.

The aftermath of the second round of legislative elections has left France pondering who will lead the country. The left bloc emerged victorious, but without an absolute majority, their claim to power is not without challenge. The burning question now is, what are the next expected steps following the election? Could the country be heading towards institutional deadlock? Let’s explore the possible scenarios.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, while not obligated to immediately resign, has announced his intention to submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday. This is a convention that follows legislative elections. However, Attal has expressed his readiness to stay at Matignon until a successor is found. Macron, on the other hand, has stated his preference to wait for the structuring of the new National Assembly before making any decisions.

The new political landscape resulting from the election cannot be ignored by Macron. A government in the minority in the National Assembly faces the threat of a vote of no confidence, which could be submitted as early as the first session of the future National Assembly on July 18th. With only 168 seats out of 577, the presidential camp’s chances of surviving such a vote are slim.

The choice of Prime Minister lies with the President, but he must consider the opinion of the majority of deputies. If a political camp secures an absolute majority of deputies, the nomination of a Prime Minister from their ranks is expected. However, with no political group currently claiming such dominance, the situation becomes more complex.

The risk of institutional deadlock looms large due to the lack of a clear majority in the Palais-Bourbon. One possible scenario is the formation of a coalition government, similar to parliamentary democracies in neighboring countries like Germany or Italy. However, the left has ruled out any alliance with the Macronist camp and/or the right, making this option unlikely. Macron’s camp has also set preconditions for any discussion towards a majority, ruling out an alliance with La France Insoumise (LFI), the main component of the left.

Another scenario is the formation of a minority government, which can remain in power without the explicit support of an absolute majority in the Assembly. The New Popular Front could theoretically govern in this way, but it would require the tacit support of at least 94 deputies who were not elected under the left’s banner. The presidential camp could also retain power by convincing 121 right-wing or center-left deputies to support them. However, a minority government would constantly live under the threat of a vote of no confidence.

In the event of a deadlock, a technical government could be appointed. This involves appointing ministers without party affiliation to manage current affairs and implement consensual reforms with the support of different blocs in the Assembly. However, such a government is not very sustainable in the long term due to a lack of electoral legitimacy.

Returning to the polls to clarify the political situation is currently excluded, as a new dissolution cannot take place within a year following these elections, according to the Constitution. Therefore, the new National Assembly is expected to sit until at least the summer of 2025.

As France awaits the appointment of a new government, the political landscape remains uncertain. The country is at a crossroads, with various scenarios on the table. Will a coalition government be formed, or will a minority or technical government take charge? Only time will tell who will ultimately lead France into the future.