Pro-China Party’s Victory in Maldives Parliamentary Elections Raises Concerns for India

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Local sources from India: The Economic Times, Al Jazeera English.
UK coverage: Financial Times.

The ruling party of the pro-China president of the Maldives, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, has won a sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections, securing 65 out of the 87 seats in the parliament. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has emerged as the dominant force in the Majlis, solidifying President Solih’s hold on power and boosting China’s influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago. This outcome has raised concerns for India, given its longstanding strategic interests in the region.

The People’s National Congress (PNC), led by Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, has emerged victorious in the recent parliamentary elections, securing a substantial majority in the country’s legislative body, the Majlis. With 66 wins out of the 86 declared seats, the PNC now holds a two-thirds majority in the Majlis, granting President Muizzu the legislative muscle to push through his policies without significant opposition.

Muizzu’s tenure has been marked by a distinct tilt towards Beijing. Since his election last year, he has awarded key infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies and fostered closer ties with Chinese officials, including a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These moves have been observed with concern in New Delhi, given India’s long-standing strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region.

Before the recent parliamentary elections, the MDP-controlled Majlis hindered Muizzu’s plans, publicly criticizing his anti-India position. Following his party’s resounding victory in the elections, Muizzu’s power to steer the nation’s policies towards China seems significantly strengthened. This raises concerns for India, given the geopolitical importance of the Maldives and the Indian Ocean region.

The strengthening of China’s influence in the Maldives is apparent, as Muizzu’s party consolidates its power in the Majlis. The Maldives owes India approximately $400.9 million, and maintaining a balanced relationship will be crucial for India’s strategic interests. India’s approach in response to this evolving scenario will be closely watched as both countries navigate the new geopolitical reality.

The preliminary results of the parliamentary elections indicate that President Muizzu’s PNC party has achieved a resounding victory, securing 70 out of 93 seats. This outcome is expected to further solidify the Maldives’ shift away from its traditional ally, India, in favor of China. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is considered pro-India, only managed to secure 15 seats compared to the 65 they held in the previous parliament.

Muizzu, a 45-year-old former construction minister, has pledged to address the challenge of rising sea levels through land reclamation and building higher islands. However, environmentalists argue that such actions could exacerbate the risk of flooding. Additionally, Muizzu has vowed to end the country’s ‘India first’ policy, straining relations with New Delhi.

During the parliamentary election campaign, Muizzu awarded significant infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies. Opposition parties, critical of Muizzu’s foreign policy and economic management, sought to hold his government accountable in the elections. Nevertheless, the PNC managed to secure crucial seats in former MDP strongholds, including the capital city of Male, Addu City, and Kulhudhuffushi City in the north.

The voter turnout was recorded at 72.9 percent, lower than the previous general elections held in 2019. The formal ratification of the results is expected to take a week, and the new assembly will assume office in early May.

As the Maldives undergoes this political shift towards closer ties with China, the implications for India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region are significant. India’s relationship with the Maldives could face greater challenges if President Muizzu continues to pursue pro-China policies and reduces cooperation with India. The geopolitical landscape in the Indian Ocean is evolving, and India’s response to this changing scenario will be closely watched by both regional and global actors.