Israel and Hezbollah on the Brink of War: Anticipation for Nasrallah’s First Speech Since the Start of the Conflict

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Local sources from Lebanon: فرانس 24 / FRANCE 24, Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية.
UK coverage: Sky News.

The recent escalation of attacks by Hezbollah on targets in northern Israel, including the use of an explosive suicide drone, has raised tensions to their highest level in nearly four weeks. Hezbollah has a significant military force and a large arsenal of potent weapons, making a conflict with Israel far bloodier and more dangerous than the current conflict with Hamas in Gaza. The United States is taking measures to deter escalation, including moving aircraft carrier strike groups to the region.

Lebanon and those involved in the war between Israel and Hamas are eagerly awaiting the first speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah since the start of the escalation, which may reveal his party’s involvement in the fighting. On the eve of this speech, the border between Israel and Lebanon witnessed a noticeable escalation, with Hezbollah announcing the targeting of 19 Israeli sites “simultaneously,” and Israel responding with “broad-scale” shelling.

It is expected that Hassan Nasrallah will deliver a speech this afternoon, Friday, which has been prepared for by media outlets affiliated with the party through the publication of clips of “Nasrallah” reviewing a number of words as he walks on the streets in preparation for his speech. Nasrallah’s speech coincides with the third week of the Israeli war in Gaza.

Several Israeli research and study centers have focused on analyzing Hezbollah’s position before the speech, especially expectations of opening a new combat front against Israel despite Lebanon’s painful losses as a result. Many Israeli analyses agree that the war on Gaza is a “regional war,” given the targeting of the Houthi Ansar Allah group in Yemen against Israel with drones, and the recent intermittent confrontations do not rise to the level of war between Hezbollah and Israel.

America sent a strong deterrent message by standing with Israel against any threat to it. Hezbollah’s entry into the war means the outbreak of a regional war that may last for a long time. The Israeli army has the capabilities and capacities to wage war on multiple fronts, but it needs the continued support of the international community.

Several Arab leaders have previously warned of the danger of the continued Israeli escalation in Gaza, stressing that it could lead to a regional war unless the firing stops.

It is expected that Hezbollah will join the fight against Israel to open new fronts and ease pressure on Hamas. Despite the missile launches against Israeli army vehicles from Lebanon, the situation does not amount to a state of war, and her analysis came as follows: Hezbollah is the strongest military organization that does not represent a state in the region. Iran and its proxies in the region support Hezbollah’s movements as a “resistance” movement. Iran uses Hezbollah on the northern border of Israel, and Hamas on its southern front, within the framework of the proxy wars in the region.

There is an urgent need for a “ceasefire” and to expedite humanitarian aid to the people of the Gaza Strip at a faster pace, along with engaging in peace negotiations. Israel is betting on military operations to pressure Hamas to release its prisoners and detainees, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli military leadership are trying to save face after the significant losses suffered by Israel following the “October 7 attack.”

With the anticipation of Nasrallah’s speech, the situation in the region is increasingly precarious. The world is watching as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese front has the potential to turn into a full-scale war, with devastating consequences for the region. As the international community continues to monitor the situation, the hope is that a diplomatic solution can be reached before the conflict escalates any further.